The Joint Regional Financing Arrangements (RFAs) research seminar series is held annually and aim to encourage technical discussions on topics relevant for crisis prevention and resolution, which are the core mandates of the RFAs. Initiated in 2017 by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic and Research Office (AMRO), European Stability Mechanism (ESM), and the Latin American Reserve Fund (FLAR), the research seminar brings together academics, policy makers, economists from central banks and finance ministries as well as representatives from RFAs, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other international financial institutions (IFIs). The past editions have dealt with issues highly relevant to RFAs, such as the effectiveness of crisis-time liquidity provision, early warning systems, and the most recent one, debt and growth in the post-pandemic world.
This year’s 6th edition of RFA Seminar will focus on spillovers from international capital flows, the policy measures to address the contagion effects and existing international frameworks that may contribute to dealing with capital flow volatility. It is co-organized in partnership with the G-20 Indonesia Presidency.
The ongoing pandemic contributes to the global financial market volatility and delayed business re-openings and is clouding the inflation outlook. Amid price pressure persisting more than anticipated, central banks in advanced economies (AEs) have taken steps toward policy normalization, while policymakers in several emerging market economies (EMEs) have continued to tighten monetary policy. The sanctions against Russia and Belarus have put further pressure on price stability, and heightened uncertainty regarding the paths of monetary policy. A sharper-than-expected monetary policy normalization in the AEs could lead to a premature tightening in global financial conditions, with potential implications for interest rates and capital outflows. In this context, understanding capital flows is increasingly crucial for both macroeconomic and financial stability policies.
Extreme swings in capital flows have long been a cause of concern for policymakers because of the risks that they can pose to macroeconomic and financial stability. For EMEs, inflows and outflows of capital can often present major challenges to financial stability, especially if the capital flows exhibit a high level of volatility. Most EMEs are recipients of increasingly large capital inflows amid intensifying financial globalization, namely, direct investment, portfolio investment and bank loans. However, it has also been exposed to sudden stops and reversals in capital flows, with attendant spillover and contagion.
Capital flow management measures (CFMs) are designed to limit capital flows and to reduce systemic financial risks stemming from such flows. Their use and classification and their relationships to macroprudential policy measures (MPMs) to manage volatile capital flows continue to be hotly debated. In support of harnessing the benefits of capital flows while managing the risks to financial and economic stability, the IMF reviewed the Institutional View on capital flows to bring it up to date with advances in theoretical and empirical research as well as the developments in the global economy and policy experiences. The seminar will offer an opportunity to visit the issue from different institutional and geographical perspectives.
AGENDA FOR MAY 17 (TUESDAY)
|7:45 PM – 8:05 PM
Welcome Remarks by the RFA Heads (Toshinori Doi, Director, AMRO; Klaus Regling, Managing Director, ESM; José Darío Uribe, Executive President, FLAR)
Remarks by the G20 Indonesia Presidency (Governor Perry Warjiyo, Bank Indonesia)
Session I: Monetary Policy Normalization after the Pandemic and its Impact on Capital Flows
In January 2022, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) released its plans related to policy normalization. As recent history has shown, financial markets’ overreaction to Fed’s actions may lead to heightened volatility in the market. Less accommodative monetary policies in AEs are expected to pose challenges for EMEs, as higher returns elsewhere will incentivize capital to flow overseas, putting downward pressure on currencies and raising inflation.
During this Session, our distinguished speakers will share their views on the prospects of accelerated monetary policy normalization and possible spillover effects to EMEs, considerations for monetary policy stance of EMEs to support their economic recovery and thoughts on how the recent geopolitical and energy related developments could affect policy prospects of AEs. We will also hear recommendations on how countries may be able to navigate a tightening monetary cycle and how macroeconomic policies may be calibrated to individual country circumstances. The speakers may also discuss the importance of international cooperation to minimize stress during the forthcoming tightening cycle and its role in ensuring ready access to liquidity support and buffer against the international amplification of eminent risks.
|8:05 PM – 8:20 PM
Stijn Claessens, Deputy Head of Monetary and Economic Department, Bank for International Settlements
|8:20 PM – 9:00 PM
Chair: Rolf Strauch, Chief Economist, ESM
1. Asia – Zeno R. Abenoja, Managing Director, Department of Economic Research, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
2. Latin America – Adrián Armas, Chief Economist, Central Bank of Peru
|9:00 PM – 9:30 PM
||Q&A with audience and closing remarks by the Chair
AGENDA FOR MAY 18 (WEDNESDAY)
Session II: The Role of Capital Flow Management Measures (CFMs) in Addressing Capital Flow Volatility
The use of CFMs have been controversial. The IMF defines CFMs as measures that are designed to limit capital flows and reduce systemic financial risks stemming from them. These can include administrative and price-based restrictions on capital flows, for instance, bans, limits, taxes, and reserve requirements. The resumption of capital flows into the region in the aftermath of the global financial crisis has reignited the debate on their impact on financial stability and economic growth. The OECD Code of Liberalization of Capital Movements promotes liberalization of the full range of international capital movements between residents of adhering economies. The G20 concluded that CFMs may constitute part of a broader policy approach to protect an economy from shocks . Broadly, the IMF, in its Institutional View recommends that CFMs should not be used to substitute for or avoid necessary macroeconomic adjustment but may be useful for supporting macroeconomic adjustment and safeguarding against systemic risks. The review preserves the core principles of the Institutional View, however, it offers additional guidance to make assessments that play an important role in the implementation of capital flow policies, such as the assessment of macro-criticality, and the identification of capital inflow surges, imminent crises, and premature liberalization.
These issues are important considerations in the RFAs’ objectives to contribute to the macroeconomic stability of the region, promoting the adoption of sound macroeconomic and financial policies, and conduct of macroeconomic and financial surveillance to prevent financial crises through the early detection of risks and vulnerabilities in member economies and the swift implementation of remedial policy actions.
During the session, the keynote presentation from the IMF will provide its recent policy discussion on capital flow management measures and how “pre-emptive” CFM can reduce EMEs’ external finance premia during risk-off shocks. Other speakers will also weigh in on the debate on the changing views on the use of CFMs. In particular, the AMRO will present on its position paper on whether the use of CFMs/MPMs may be justified for the ASEAN+3 region.
|8:00 PM – 8:20 PM
Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Deputy Director, Strategy, Policy and Review Department, IMF
|8:20 PM – 9:10 PM
Chair: Khor Hoe Ee, Chief Economist, AMRO
1. Toshinori Doi, Director, AMRO
2. Carmine Di Noia, Director, Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
3. Norhana Endut, Assistant Governor, Bank Negara Malaysia
4. Jose Antonio Ocampo, Professor, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
|9:10 PM – 9:40 PM
||Q&A with audience and closing remarks by the Chair and G20 International Financial Architecture Working Group (IFA WG) Co-chair
Byungsik Jung, Deputy Director General, Ministry of Economy and Finance and G20 IFA Working Group Korean co-chair
|9:40 PM – 9:45 PM
||Remarks by next seminar host
Carlos Giraldo, Chief Economist, FLAR