The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO), the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), and the Latin American Reserve Fund (FLAR) initiated this annual joint research seminar series in 2017. The event brings together scholars, policymakers, economists from central banks and finance ministries, as well as representatives from regional financing arrangements (RFAs), the IMF and other IFIs. It seeks to encourage discussion on issues related to RFA mandates, such as the effectiveness of providing liquidity during times of crises, early warning systems and sovereign risks, as well as on broader regional and global economic developments and challenges.
Over the past decade, public debt has risen significantly worldwide following adverse shocks – namely the global financial crisis and the pandemic – and against the backdrop of accommodative monetary policies in advanced economies that enabled governments to borrow at a low cost. However, recent interest rates hikes, coupled with ongoing high inflation, pose new challenges to debt sustainability and fiscal policy. Moreover, continued weak growth by historical standards may make it more difficult in some cases to achieve fiscal consolidation and stabilization. Meanwhile, longer-term trends such as climate change and aging populations add further pressure on budgets, including due to higher investment needs, and can negatively affect growth. This underscores the need to have balance between tax revenues and public expenditures to safeguard long-term fiscal sustainability.
This seminar addresses debt sustainability and fiscal policy issues from three viewpoints. The first session will consist of a dialogue between officials from regional institutions with a prominent academic expert on the implications of inter alia higher interest rates and inflation for debt sustainability analysis. The second session will aim at obtaining a deeper understanding of debt and fiscal challenges and policy priorities going forward, globally and across different regions. The last session will examine how the international community and regional partners can help countries navigate such challenges and advance reforms that reduce debt vulnerabilities and make economies greener, more resilient, and inclusive.
AGENDA FOR MAY 25 (THURSDAY)
* All times below refer to Cartagena time (GMT-5)
Session I: Dialogue on Public Debt Sustainability Analysis in a High interest Rate and High Inflation Environment
Possible issues to consider include how to analyse debt sustainability in the current conjecture? How to analyse debt sustainability in developed vs developing and emerging economies? How to deal with the great uncertainty in economic projections?
| Time (GMT-5) | Program |
| 8:00 AM – 8:05 AM | Welcome Opening ceremony
José Darío Uribe, Executive President, FLAR |
| 8:05 AM – 9:50 AM | Chair: Carlos Giraldo, Chief Economist, FLAR
Keynote Speech Ugo Panizza, Professor of Economics, Geneva Graduate Institute Panel discussion
Q&A session and Chair’s closing remarks |
| 9:50 AM – 10:10 AM | Break |
Session II: Policy Exchange on Debt and Fiscal Challenges and Priorities
Possible issues to consider include: What are the main policy implications of a high debt and high interest rate environment? How to incorporate climate change into the long-term fiscal policy outlook? Is there a new paradigm for the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies? What are the main challenges for fiscal consolidation in the context of the ongoing cost-of-living crisis that many countries face? What are the main challenges for future fiscal consolidation?
| Time (GMT-5) | Program |
| 10:10 AM – 11:55 AM | Chair: Marialena Athanasopoulou, Deputy Head of the Economic Risk Analysis, ESM
Keynote Speech Paolo Mauro, Deputy Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF Panel discussion
Q&A session and Chair’s closing remarks |
AGENDA FOR MAY 26 (FRIDAY)
Session III: The Role of the International Community and Regional Partners in Supporting Debt Sustainability and Management of Fiscal Challenges
Possible issues to consider include: How can multilateral and regional organizations contribute toward public debt sustainability? How can the global community help to increase debt level transparency to understand the actual magnitude of global debt risk? How can multilateral organizations contribute to better incorporate long-term trends such as climate change into the fiscal sustainability framework?
| Time (GMT-5) | Program |
| 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM | Chair: Luke Hong, Lead Economist, AMRO
Keynote Speech Richard Martínez, Vice President for Countries, IDB Panel discussion
Q&A session and Chair’s closing remarks |
| 10:00 AM – 10:05 AM | Closing Remarks
Fidel Jaramillo, General Secretary, FLAR |
CHAIR SPEAKERS
Carlos Giraldo, Chief Economist, FLAR
Marialena Athanasopoulou, Deputy Head of the Economic Risk Analysis, ESM
Luke Hong, Lead Economist, AMRO
SPEAKERS
Ugo Panizza, Professor of Economics, The Graduate Institute, Geneva, Switzerland
Paolo Mauro, Deputy Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF
Richard Martínez, Vice President for Countries, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)
Parjiono, Assistant to Minister of Finance for Macro Economy and International Finance, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia
Marialuz Moreno Badia, Deputy Division Chief, IMF
Chloé Bellec, Senior Policy Officer, G7 / G20
Grégory Claeys, Senior Fellow, Bruegel
Adriana Arreaza, Director of Macroeconomic Studies, CAF
Oscar Valencia, Lead Specialist, Fiscal and Municipal Management Division, IDB
Byunghoon Nam, Senior Economist, AMRO
Rodrigo Mariscal, Chief Economist, Finance Ministry of Mexico
Giovanni Callegari, Head of Economic Risk Analysis, ESM