China has strong economic foundations to pursue and achieve high-quality growth. The country’s recovery from the 2020 downturn has stayed intact despite the slowdown in H2 2021 and H1 2022 due to COVID-19 outbreaks, headwinds in the property sector, and supply side disruptions.
Against the backdrop of a resilient labor market, well-contained inflation pressures, strong external position and sound banking system, China’s economic recovery should regain momentum in H2 2022, with growth for the year coming in at about 4.8 percent. Consumption should remain the key driver, boosted by the lifting of containment measures and underpinned by improving labor market conditions.
These conclusions are highlighted in AMRO’s 2021 Annual Consultation Report on China.