Launched in 2017, the 20th anniversary of the Asian Financial Crisis, the AREO provides AMRO staff’s assessment of both the conjunctural and structural issues facing the ASEAN+3 region.
The first chapter of AREO 2020 covers the short-term risks, vulnerabilities, and challenges facing member economies, as well as the policy options taken by, or that are available to, their authorities, during this unprecedented period in global economics and finance. The second chapter takes a longer-term perspective on growth in the region, in view of four major global trends: the (1) Fourth Industrial Revolution, (2) increasing protectionist environment in Europe and the United State, (3) rise of Factory Asia and Shopper Asia, and (4) growing regional integration.
The AREO 2020 is based on information available as of March 16, 2020. It was prepared prior to the publication of much of members’ macroeconomic data for February 2020, when the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic was starting to manifest. Therefore, it does not include in-depth analysis of the impact of what has become a global pandemic, nor many of the related policy responses that were subsequently announced by member authorities. The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly increased the uncertainty and downside risks around the global and regional outlook, and AMRO staff will continue to update their analyses and projections in the months ahead, taking into account new data releases and policy responses.