AMRO’s baseline 2022 GDP growth forecast for the ASEAN+3 region assumes continued improvement in the global economy, but at a slower pace due to the Omicron variant. AMRO has kept broadly unchanged its GDP growth projections for the Plus-3 economies of China; Hong Kong, China; Japan and Korea. Forecasts for 6 of the 10 ASEAN economies have been revised only slightly downwards. Inflation for the ASEAN+3 economies should rise slightly higher than AMRO’s last forecast in October 2021, but consumer price rises will stay relatively low when compared with other regions globally.
A resurgence of infections continues to pose the key downside risk, amplified by lingering global supply chain disruptions and rising global price pressures. While the rise in global inflation is likely to prompt major advanced economies to roll back extraordinary monetary support earlier or more sharply than anticipated, the spillover effects for the ASEAN+3 region is likely to be limited because of greater resilience.