In this October 2022 quarterly update, AMRO revised downwards its short-term growth forecast for the ASEAN+3 region. The continuing strict dynamic zero-COVID policy and real estate sector weakness in China and potential recessions in the United States and the euro area are weighing on the region’s outlook.
AMRO forecasts the ASEAN+3 region to grow by 3.7 percent this year—down from the 4.3 percent growth projected in July reflecting mainly weaker growth in Plus-3 economies. The ASEAN region is expected to grow strongly by 5.3 percent. The region’s inflation rate for 2022 is now projected to be 6.2 percent—a full percentage point higher than previously forecast. Growth is expected to increase to 4.6 percent in 2023 as China’s economy picks up, with inflation moderating to about 3.4 percent.