Crushing Waves: Diving into the Covid Cycle

On the first anniversary of the COVID-19 outbreak in the region, the pandemic is up to its fourth wave in some countries around the world. Vaccines have been successfully developed, but mutations and more infectious new variants of the virus are alarming the experts. Expectations now are that it will be some time yet before the world’s population is sufficiently vaccinated to achieve “herd immunity.”

In this analytical note, the authors provide an update on AMRO’s Covid Cycle. In the intervening months since its introduction, the authors calibrated the Cycle based on knowledge gained about infections and changes to the reported data. This note explains the adjustments and shows different ways in which the data could be analyzed to provide further perspectives on the pandemic that continues to sweep through our region and the rest of the world.

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