08:00am – 08.30am:  Registration

08:30am – 08.35am:  Welcome Remarks by Dr Junhong Chang, Director of AMRO

08:35am – 08.50am:  Keynote Address by Dr Yaobin Shi, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Finance, China & Madam Thipphakone Chanthavongsa, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Finance, Lao PDR

08:50am – 10.15am:  Panel 1: Regional Outlook and Policy Responses
East Asia has continued to be a relatively bright spot in the global economy. However, the recent slowdown of the global economy, divergent macro-economic policies of major economies, anaemic international trade, and low commodity prices have cast a shadow on East Asia’s outlook. Although the region is expected to be able to steer through these cyclical challenges, East Asian economies need to examine their domestic structural weakness to secure a sustainable and robust economic growth. In view of new environment, what can policy makers do to address both cyclical and structural challenges, maintain economic stability and reinvigorate the region’s potential growth?

Moderator: Dr Hoe Ee Khor, Chief Economist of AMRO

Panel Speakers: (5 minutes for each)

• Chikahisa Sumi, Director, Regional Office for Asia and Pacific, IMF
• Mr Juzhong Zhuang, Deputy Chief Economist and Deputy Director General of the Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB
• Mr Ming Zhang, Director of Department of International Investment, Institute of World Economics and Polictics (IWEP) under Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
• Mr In-Chang Song, Deputy Minister, International Affairs of the Ministry of Strategy and Finance of Korea
• Dr Yoichi Nemoto, President, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance of Japan
• Mr Mathee Supapongse, Deputy Governor of Monetary Stability, Bank of Thailand

Discussion

10:15am – 10.30am:  Group Photo Session, Coffee break

10:30am – 12.25am:  Panel 2: ASEAN+3 Financial Cooperation – New Opportunities and Challenges, Future Direction
Since the East Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, ASEAN+3 financial cooperation has deepened and a lot have been achieved. Among others, the CMIM has been further upgraded in 2014, with a crisis prevention facility, 30% of IMF de-linked portion, and double in size to USD 240 billion. AMRO was re-established as an international organization, effective from 9 February 2016. However, there are lingering doubts on the effectiveness of CMIM. AMRO’s surveillance and other functions have yet to undergo critical tests. This panel will conduct stock-taking on the progress and developments of CMIM and AMRO and identify the main challenges. At the same time, it may review the recent discourse of the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN) and developments of other Regional Financial Arrangements. Lastly, possible future directions and policy recommendations will be drawn on how to enhance the effectiveness of CMIM and how to increase AMRO’s service and influence in the ASEAN+3 region.

Moderator: Mr Benhua Wei, Senior Director of International Monetary Institute, Academic Committee of Renmin University of China

Panel Speakers: (5 minutes for each)

• Prof Masahiro Kawai, Professor, Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Tokyo. Director and Director General, Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia (ERINA)
• Dr Yongding Yu, Academician and Senior Fellow of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
• Prof Yungchul Park, Distinguished Professor, Division of International Studies, Korea University
• Prof C Randall Henning, Professor of School of International Service, American University
• Dr Rolf Strauch, Management Board Member of the European Stability Mechanism and the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)
• Dr Perry Warjiyo, Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia
• Mr Diwa Guinigundo, Deputy Governor, Monetary Stability Sector, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
• Mr Masatsugu Asakawa, Vice Minister, Ministry of Finance of Japan

Discussion

12:25pm:  Closing Remarks by Dr Bandid Nijathaworn, the Chair of AMRO Advisory Panel

12:30pm:  Lunch Buffet

Welcome Remarks
Dr Junhong Chang

Keynote Address
Dr Yaobin Shi, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Finance, China
Madam Thipphakone Chanthavongsa, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Finance, Lao PDR

Panel 1: Regional Outlook and Policy Responses
Moderator: Dr Hoe Ee Khor, Chief Economist of AMRO

Panel Speakers:

• Mr Chikahisa Sumi, Director, Regional Office for Asia and Pacific, IMF
• Mr Juzhong Zhuang, Deputy Chief Economist and Deputy Director General of the Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB
• Mr Ming Zhang, Director of Department of International Investment, Institute of World Economics and Polictics (IWEP) under Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
• Mr In-Chang Song, Deputy Minister, International Affairs of the Ministry of Strategy and Finance of Korea
• Dr Yoichi Nemoto, President, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance of Japan
• Mr Mathee Supapongse, Deputy Governor of Monetary Stability, Bank of Thailand

Panel 2: ASEAN+3 Financial Cooperation – New Opportunities and Challenges, Future Direction
Moderator: Mr Benhua Wei, Senior Director of International Monetary Institute, Academic Committee of Renmin University of China

Panel Speakers:

• Prof Masahiro Kawai, Professor, Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Tokyo. Director and Director General, Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia (ERINA)
• Dr Yongding Yu, Academician and Senior Fellow of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
• Prof Yungchul Park, Distinguished Professor, Division of International Studies, Korea University
• Prof C Randall Henning, Professor of School of International Service, American University
• Dr Rolf Strauch, Management Board Member of the European Stability Mechanism and the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)
• Dr Perry Warjiyo, Deputy Governor of Bank Indonesia
• Mr Diwa Guinigundo, Deputy Governor, Monetary Stability Sector, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
• Mr Masatsugu Asakawa, Vice Minister, Ministry of Finance of Japan

Closing Remarks
Dr Bandid Nijathaworn, the Chair of AMRO Advisory Panel

Opening Remarks by Dr Junhong Chang, Director of AMRO at the inaugural ASEAN+3 Financial Forum (ATFF)
December 10, 2016, Guiyang, China

AMRO Director Junhong Chang delivered the opening remarks at the ATFF 2016.

Dear ASEAN+3 Finance and Central Bank Deputies,
Co-chairs of 2016,
Distinguished guests,
Ladies and gentlemen – Good morning!

I am very delighted and honored to welcome you all to AMRO’s first ASEAN+3 Financial Forum (ATFF), held back to back with the ASEAN+3 Finance and Central Bank Deputies’ Meeting in Guiyang.
Our gathering today is a testament to regional financial cooperation in East Asia, galvanized by the Asian Financial Crisis almost two decades ago. Since the crisis, the region has learnt that members are stronger and more resilient if they stand together, and regional financial cooperation has progressed steadily and surely. The commitment of ASEAN+3 economies to enhance regional financial cooperation has led to the establishment of AMRO, which is envisioned as an independent, credible and professional regional organization acting as a trusted policy advisor to members in the region.

At the same time, the world is now facing challenges to the fundamental principles underpinning economic and financial cooperation. There is a growing opposition against economic globalization, and against the principle that trade and financial linkages bring mutual benefit to all members. This populist critique of free trade and economic cooperation can no longer be dismissed, and requires a concerted and determined response from policy makers, opinion leaders, economists and academia, including our distinguished speakers today.

These important and pertinent issues affecting our region and the world are what the ATFF, as one of AMRO’s new key initiatives, is designed to address. ATFF will provide a flagship platform for ASEAN+3 Deputies, academics and high-level representatives from international financial institutions to brainstorm key challenges and issues relevant to regional economic and financial cooperation. This is a key pillar in AMRO’s strategic priorities to forge partnerships with a diverse group of stakeholders. In the long run, AMRO hopes to become a “regional anchor”, not only to inspire insightful and forward-looking thinking and ideas on regional financial cooperation, but also to facilitate the transfer of knowledge and best practices from where it is available to where it is needed, to enhance individual and organizational capacity and to support member authorities and other parties to make evidence-based and informed decisions.

As you can see from the agenda of this half-day program, this year’s theme is East Asia in a Dynamic New World. I have mentioned the growing populist backlash against free trade, and policy uncertainty is accentuated going into 2017 as this agenda is implemented into policy in the U.S. and in Europe. This policy uncertainty is another setback to global economic growth. While East Asian economies continue to trade with and invest more within the region, this cannot completely offset the drag on growth from outside the region. Our economies remain vulnerable to external shocks and contagion through financial and trade channels, and despite the buffers that have been built up in foreign exchange reserves, the region’s resilience will be severely tested. We have with us two panels of distinguished speakers, who will share their views on the regional outlook and policy responses, and the future direction of ASEAN+3 financial cooperation in the very challenging times.

In closing, I wish to express my gratitude to all distinguished speakers for joining and sharing with us your insights on these important topics, and to thank all members, especially the Co-chairs, China and Laos, for their diligence, guidance and contributions. I would also like to thank the Chinese government for its generous support for this event through the China Technical Assistance Trust Fund, and the Ministry of Finance of China and Guizhou provincial government for their hospitality and excellent administrative support. Let me also single out two distinguished people who have joined us today: AMRO’s founding Director Mr. Wei and the second Director Dr. Nemoto. My heartfelt appreciation to them for their pioneering efforts and contributions to the institutional groundwork establishing AMRO, and the solid foundation on which they have built for AMRO to grow and thrive.
I am confident that the unique views and perspectives that you will bring to the table today will shape a very informative, illuminating and enriching discussion.

Thank you.

Strengthened ASEAN+3 Regional Financial Cooperation Needed to Tackle Emerging Challenges in the Global Economy

The inaugural ASEAN+3 Financial Forum (ATFF) 2016 was attended by high-level policy makers, renowned academics and economists who have strong background and experience on the East Asia region.

GUIYANG, CHINA, December 10, 2016 – ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) today held the inaugural ASEAN+3 Financial Forum (ATFF), back to back with the ASEAN+3 Finance and Central Bank Deputies’ Meeting (AFCDM+3) in Guiyang, China.

With the theme of East Asia in a Dynamic New World, the half-day forum focused on the regional outlook and policy responses and regional financial cooperation against the backdrop of an uncertain external environment.

“Since the Asian Financial Crisis almost two decades ago, the region has learnt that economies are stronger and more resilient if they stand together, and regional financial cooperation has progressed steadily and surely,” said Dr. Junhong Chang, AMRO Director, in her opening remarks. “At the same time, there is a growing opposition against economic cooperation, free trade and financial linkages, which requires a concerted and determined response from policy makers, opinion leaders, economists and academia, and the private sector. These important and pertinent issues affecting our region and the world are the themes of the ATFF.”

The forum was attended by Dr Yaobin Shi, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Finance, China and Madam Thipphakone Chanthavongsa, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Finance, Lao PDR, Co-chairs of ASEAN+3 for 2016. Discussants and speakers include high-level policy makers, renowned academics and economists who have strong background and experience on the East Asia region.

Chairing panel of the ATFF 2016. (From left to right: Mr Benhua Wei, Senior Director of International Monetary Institute, Academic Committee of Renmin University of China; Madam Thipphakone Chanthavongsa, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Finance, Lao PDR; Dr. Chang Junhong, AMRO Director; Dr Yaobin Shi, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Finance, China; and Dr. Hoe Ee Khor, AMRO Chief Economist.)

The panelists noted that East Asia continued to be a bright spot in the global economy, thanks to earlier reforms and structural adjustments that economies in the region have undertaken. Growing intra-regional linkages in trade and investment within the region have also helped to bolster regional growth, at a time of weak external demand from outside the region.

Going into 2017, the external environment is even more challenging, with tightening global monetary conditions, policy uncertainty from the incoming U.S. administration and Brexit negotiations, and the rising risk of trade protectionism. The panelists discussed the tail risks for emerging markets, including capital outflows, currency depreciation and trade tensions. In that context, policy makers are advised to deploy the full suite of policy tools to deal with potential external risks, including appropriate monetary and fiscal policy settings to support growth while maintaining financial stability, and structural policies to lift the long-term growth potential of the economy.

Against the current backdrop of uncertainty in the external environment, strengthening regional financial cooperation can be beneficial to all economies in the region.

AMRO senior management team, Finance and Central Bank Deputies and distinguished speakers and participants at the inaugural ASEAN+3 Financial Forum (ATFF) on December 10, 2016 in Guiyang, China.

The forum also discussed new opportunities, challenges and future directions of the ASEAN+3 financial cooperation. Panelists noted that since the East Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s, ASEAN+3 financial cooperation has deepened and expanded. They underscored that the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralisation (CMIM) has been further upgraded since 2014, with a crisis prevention facility and its size doubled to USD 240 billion, and AMRO has become an international organization since February 2016.

“The commitment of ASEAN+3 economies to enhance regional financial cooperation has led to the establishment of AMRO, which is envisioned as an independent, credible and professional regional organization acting as a trusted policy advisor to members in the region,” said Dr. Chang.

Panelists then examined the recent G20’s discussion on a more stable and resilient international financial architecture. Recently, the G20 leaders reconfirmed that they would support work to further strengthen the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN), with the IMF at its center, and with more effective cooperation between the IMF and regional financing arrangements (RFAs).

Panelists and participants all agreed that enhanced regional financial cooperation is in the interest of all members of the ASEAN+3 region and collective actions are essential for safeguarding the regional financial stability. They also concurred that CMIM and AMRO together would continue to serve as two main vehicles to mobilize the regional resources and consensus and to push forward regional financial cooperation agenda. They agreed that CMIM needs to be further developed and fully operationally ready and AMRO should strengthen its secretariat function to the CMIM and enhance its macroeconomic surveillance capacity to better monitor macroeconomic developments and detect risks.

As an important initiative of AMRO, the ATFF will act as a flagship platform for ASEAN+3 Deputies, academics and high-level representatives of international financial institutions to brainstorm on challenges and issues relevant to the regional economic and financial cooperation.

The inaugural ASEAN+3 Financial Forum (ATFF) 2016 was attended by high-level policy makers, renowned academics and economists who have strong background and experience on the East Asia region.

AMRO Director Junhong Chang delivered the opening remarks at the ATFF 2016.

Chairing panel of the ATFF 2016. (From left to right: Mr Benhua Wei, Senior Director of International Monetary Institute, Academic Committee of Renmin University of China; Madam Thipphakone Chanthavongsa, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Finance, Lao PDR; Dr. Chang Junhong, AMRO Director; Dr Yaobin Shi, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Finance, China; and Dr. Hoe Ee Khor, AMRO Chief Economist.)

AMRO senior management team, Finance and Central Bank Deputies and distinguished speakers and participants at the inaugural ASEAN+3 Financial Forum (ATFF) on December 10, 2016 in Guiyang, China.

For more photos of the 2016 ATFF, please visit this album on AMRO’s Flickr.